Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
